The Tiger at Home

People at The Corner are watching the Dems debate.

Update:  And consolidation of the establishment continues.

Rudy and Arnold flank McCain.

The endorsement.

You know, if the tumblers all fall into place, John McCain ends up as Republican nominee, Hillary Clinton winds up being Democratic nominee, and he sweeps into power with a tough guy centre-right coalition (including the votes of many of my liberal friends), I am going to have to give serious thought to changing my mind about the purposiveness of history.

Viz., I am going to be much more open to the idea that a country gets the right leaders in times of historical necessity (and only then :p).

Because the story of this year has been so unlikely…

It ain’t over — California is tightening.

Romney still has a shot at this, I think…

***

But whatever. It’s time for me to stop blogging politics & watch the latest House episode, which I skipped on Tuesday.

Update: LOL.

Update again: Or…

H’m.

Will the youth vote actually turn out on February 5th?

Frustrated by feckless Washington, energized by the unscripted, pundit-baffling freedom of a wide-open race, young people are voting in numbers rarely seen since the general election of 1972 — the first in which the voting age was lowered to 18. Obama is both catalyst and beneficiary. In state after state, he has drawn more young voters than any of his competitors. For a group of voters with no memory of a time before Bushes and Clintons, Obama is a fresh face. His opponents promise to fight, but Obama promises healing. His is the language of possibility, which is the native tongue of the young. And if he happens to be light on details — well, what are details but the dull pieces of disassembled dreams? “I had a friend tell me this was impossible, quoting all these political-science statistics at me to show that it’s hopeless to try to organize students,” says Michelle Stein, 20, media coordinator for Obama’s youth campaign in Missouri. “Now he says, ‘You were right, I was wrong. Where do I sign up?’”

Don’t they tell us this every four years?  Well, we’ll see…

Ahnold is going to back McCain.

So is Steve Forbes.

This little appearance from October will be looked at some more, sooner or later…

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) said Monday he wouldn’t accept a vice presidential slot should his rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, defeat him in securing the Democratic party’s nomination for president.

“I’m not running for vice president,” he said. ”I don’t have intentions of being on the ticket as vice president.”

And he shouldn’t.

The case for John McCain: “The Last Action Hero“.

Update: My take, for principled conservatives:

If you guys were for Fred, I’ll take your critiques of McCain as just, and I honour & respect your commitment to your principles. (Though, you know, even Fred voted for McCain-Feingold. If you could forgive him…) But if you were/are for Romney, you need to read this article and think for a while.

Get a sense of priorities, will you?

Update again: But yes, McCain needs to reach out. And he will.

Update the third:  Ouch.

What of the Dems?

Whither Edwards’ supporters?

And what of Michigan and Florida’s delegates?

Horserace: How McCain won Florida.

Douthat: How the campaign has gone.

Update:  A third one –

Barone: Republicans unite; Democrats divide.

If McCain is on his way (which I’m still not sure of), the Republicans will have a nominee soon.

If the Dems are down to two contenders — which they are, with Edwards dropping out — then they will not have a brokered convention. Even if it goes to the convention and is decided by a floor fight over MI and FL, and wooing superdelegates, the first ballot will be decisive.

McCain won with this:

The power of straight talk.

Update:  A more serious analysis.

Just how did McCain get such a large margin?

The Miami Cubans — he had a 52,000 vote margin in Miami-Dade.

They’re foreign policy hawks and… well, I would guess that they might not like the whole illegal immigration focus of so many other Republicans.

I just ordered a McCain fleece.

It isn’t a fleece jacket, but it’ll just have to do — and it might even end up being the best choice.

(Think metaphorically of conservative voters.)

Peacemakers are coming out at NRO:

But while McCain and Romney supporters are currently offering up recriminations over who launched the most unfair attack, let me just say at least the Florida GOP race was won and lost discussing the issues. …

Whatever happens, I hope that McCain and Romney are able to bury any personal animus generated by their tough campaigning. Romney is a great and capable leader with a very high profile, and McCain would be foolish not to find a use for him in his campaign and — I’m getting way ahead of myself here — a McCain administration. (I sincerely hope that Levin didn’t just read that and have an aneurysm.)

Similarly, I hope that with the nomination looming McCain realizes the necessity of offering assurances to conservatives. He’s been edging in that direction and he should be encouraged.

We’ll see.

It may be a rough week.

InstaUpdate: And Romney did it again! He doesn’t play by the rules…

Update again: And Hugh fights on.

This isn’t over.

Update the third: Still, look at this round-up from Sullivan.

To be updated as the evening goes…

5:30 PM: First round of exits are out: McCain 34.3%, Romney 32.6%, Giuliani 15.3%, Huckabee 12%. (more…)

From the security analysts’ side — (more…)

With yesterday’s polls in (samples on 1/28), we can say:

Romney and McCain are dead even in pre-votes. For people casting their votes today, McCain is up by a point or two.

However, Romney has a much stronger organization (lots of old Bush people), and this can make a different of a point or two at the margins.

So… another recount in Florida?

Update, 1:45 PM: Other predictions here –

Outside the Beltway, round-up at Election Projection, Hot Air (comments thread), Red State, The Fix.

Update, 3:30 PM:  No exit poll leaks till 5 PM.

The surge.

I think I can see something coming in the mood of the American people. (more…)