Strange days.

But yes, both candidates think this is a debate they will win.

What do I think about this? [via Campaign Spot]

I think that two or three “senior Republicans” are playing mind games with Hillary-supporting Democrats.

And lovin’ it.

(Would I be surprised if it were true?  Wouldn’t be at all surprised if she felt that way — I think she does.  But I’d be moderately surprised if she had been dumb enough to get caught on tape saying that sort of thing.  MRO is a very smart lady.)

LOL:

There’s an old Bill Cosby bit that deals with shop class. One of the kids thought it would be funny to put a bullet in the furnace. Then, in the middle of class, the bullet explodes quite loudly.

The shop teacher, wanting to find out who did it, starts insulting the student who’d do it. “You’d have to be pretty low-down to put a bullet in the furnace.” When that doesn’t work, he starts in on the student’s mother. “You know, it says something about the mothe of a person who would put a bullet in a furnace…”

At that point, one student stands up and shouts at the teacher. “I didn’t do it, and stop talking about my mother!”

Anyway. Whatever.

Update:  Mind you…

Apparently.

Well, maybe it’s the people who say they’ll vote for McCain in a McCain/Obama race, so they figure they haven’t got anything to lose…

Every time I’m about ready to pronounce my own political party, the Republicans, dead, stuff like this happens.

Go figure.

Update: But hey, if the Democratic Party wants to lose more than the Republican Party does, who am I to stand in the way?

Update again: They really, really want to wear this one.

Update the third, mid-afternoon: Ok, Dems, you think this is about you?

Take it.

Am following up on this. (Rather, to the comments to it.)

The Republican Party is tired. It is in disarray. It has nominated the one man who can win the presidency for it this year, but he is a very flawed candidate himself. And his presidency would do little for the party as a party — it would merely put off certain looming dangers.

What I meant when I said that the Republican Party’s coalition may be nearing the end of its natural life, is that many of the specific policy prescriptions it is pushing are dealing with less salient issues — to take one example, yes, taxes are higher than they ought to be in an ideal liberal democracy, but they are not so high that an election can be won on the issue; the deficit is more of a problem at this point. Given the problems people are experiencing with HMOs, to say nothing of the revolution in the workplace that has us young ‘uns all skipping from one job to another, the health care system does need some restructuring. (A move from job-linked health care to individual portable policies is my preference.)

On the other hand, the general broad-line principles — Lockean liberalism with a dash of social conservatism — are as attractive as ever. The political philosophy outlined in this interview speaks strongly enough to a significant fraction of the American populace that I can see no good reason to move to a sort of David Cameron-like Toryism.

Republicans are not Tories.  [Update:  I should say, rather, that American conservatives are not Tories.]

***

But it doesn’t matter what I think. American political parties gain their strength from the bottom up. (This does pre-date Obama’s presence on the federal scene.) If someone is selling something that others are buying, he or she can win primaries.

And if the time for an idea has come but the leaders have not, popular movements can out-maneuver politicians and get it done all the same, intense opposition from the stakeholders notwithstanding — see taxpayer revolts in California and Massachusetts. Or Ward Connerly’s efforts against racial preferences in California and Michigan.

So we’ll do just fine, even if the Republican Party gets pummeled in November 2008.

Update:

No sooner do I pen this article, but I find corroboration (link at the bottom of that Reason interview) –

Massachusetts must have been a terrifying place in 1995. A relatively recent arrival in the commonwealth myself, I had no idea that the mid-90s was a time when health care was unobtainable. I didn’t know about the washed out bridges and unplowed roads. Nor do I recall seeing bands of feral children roaming the streets from 8:00 am to 3:00 pm due to the lack of public schools.

But a popular ballot initiative to eliminate Massachusetts’s income tax—thus bringing the state budget back to 1995 levels—is being greeted with howls of protest and predictions that the state will degenerate into underfunded chaos. …

The initiative is brutally simple: A 50 percent decrease in the income tax rate effective January 1, 2009, and the rest abolished one year later. That takes the state from its current revenues of about $28 billion down to the $17 billion it had in 1995. …

In 2002, the Committee for Small Government snagged 45 percent of the vote with a similar initiative. “We found we could get a good respectable vote,” says committee chair Carla Howell. The effort got almost no coverage, and every single one of the few editorial pages that took notice of the proposal opposed it, says Howell. …

A statewide survey in April by polling firm Fabrizo McLaughlin found that Massachusetts voters think their government wastes about 41 cents [PDF] for every dollar of revenue. Elimination of the state income tax would reduce the state’s budget by about 40 percent. As the kids used to say in the ’90s: Coincidence? I think not.

Ha. Now there’s the Spirit of ‘76 at work!

I bet a lot of people right now in Democratic circles are asking themselves — ok, is this racial divide in WVA and elsewhere an identity politics thing or an issues thing?

If the former rather than the latter, wouldn’t an Obama-Edwards ticket make sense?

It’d pull him left on substance, but if it isn’t about issues but identity, who cares?

They seemed to mesh well together on stage.

The NRCCC, Tom Cole, decides not to be Baghdad Bob:

Following the victory by Democrat Travis Childers in tonight’s special election, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) issued what can only be called a declaration of surrender. …

This whole statement is an admission by Cole that he does not now how House Republicans can win in November as a group, so each member better protect himself or herself. To his credit, Cole has been warning his members that they need to run as outsiders this fall, but beyond that general admonition, the Oklahoma Republican can’t show them a path to victory. It’s an extraordinary statement by the head of a national campaign committee, but it is not one that’s going to inspire any warm feelings from his GOP colleagues.

“Scatter! Save yourselves!” [via Ben Smith]

Or, in other language:

We Are Totally Frakked [Mark Krikorian]

If the GOP can’t hold on to a House seat in the Deep South that Bush won by 25 points, it’s going to be 1974 all over again.

Yeah. I’m thinking this is the right metaphor for the fall.

But hey, this too will pass.

Update: More thoughts at ABC.

Update again: Huh.

One House leadership aide told Politics Nation: “To lose two Southern seats in two weeks, I mean, oh my God.”

Yeah.

Update the third:  1974 & 1976 were terrible.  1978 saw the return of measures from the bottom-up — property tax revolts, primary challenges, etc.  1980 saw a resurgence.

It can be done.

But before that, trouble is coming, whether the presidency is saved or not.

Final outcome: 67-26 — not quite 70-30, but an even wider margin!

Whew — 41%.

Of course, this morning has Obama right on track.

Update: Heh.

After that, her eyes glowed red and a portion of her skin was removed to reveal her titanium endoskeleton, as the Cyberdyne Systems model HIL-800 pledged to “accomplish mission objectives.”

Well…

Update, midday:  This latest poll has Obama doing better than HRC against McCain, albeit in a statistically insignificant margin.

Though I think that Clinton is now a much stronger candidate against McCain, this takes the legs out from that argument to superdelegates.

6:03 PM: We’re all just going through the motions, now…

Well, maybe if Hillary wins by more than 30 points, it’ll have an impact. Not so much, if it’s closer.

Russert is asking, “What does Hillary want?”

We’ll see…

Ok, that tells us what tonight is: Kremlinology.

6:10 PM: Interesting tidbit — Obama has picked up 27 superdelegates in the past week.

6:35 PM: And Obama’s already done for the night, with a sleep-inducing speech in Missouri. (Buchanan’s making fun of him.)

Missouri’s a bellwether, isn’t it? Not such fertile territory for the man right now…

6:41 PM: But watch Mississippi tonight. That’ll be the canary in the mineshaft for this fall — will it be a bad year for the Republican congressional candidates, or will it be a nightmare?

6:44 PM: But hey, if we’re going to have a Republican nightmare, why not pair it with a Democratic nightmare, too?

7:00 PM: New stat on MSNBC — Obama’s magic number. i.e., number of delegates needed to clinch nomination.

Kremlinology continues — what will the tone of Senator Clinton’s speech be tonight? Matthews and Olbermann are on the “tone watch” tonight, they say.

7:14 PM: Since Obama isn’t speaking, here’s what his staffers have to say.

7:15 PM: Reminder — elections matter.

Even the most diehard Iraq hawks want to reduce the U.S. military footprint in Iraq and lean more heavily on Iraqi Security Forces to do the hard work of defeating insurgents and sectarian militias. Which is why recent developments in Basra have been so encouraging. At first, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s decision to confront Moqtada al-Sadr’s Iranian-backed militas looked like a major strategic misstep. Now it appears to have transformed Iraqi politics, potentially paving the way for real reconciliation between Sunni and Shia. …

Maliki did something unexpected: He fired those who refused to fight and pressed on with the offensive, in Basra and also in Sadr City, where a second front opened up. A tenuous ceasefire took hold in Basra, and ISF forces have cleared the streets of the militias, using tactics drawn from the surge. This was done with a strikingly small number of American and British troops, though coalition assistance proved crucial. …

The smartest case for withdrawal would acknowledge this new reality, and claim that it demonstrates that coalition forces are superfluous and can thus be safely withdrawn. … But the government’s chances would be far stronger with a continued American presence backing its efforts up. Unfortunately, few Americans understand what Maliki has accomplished, and how much international assistance he needs to beat back foreign elements that aim to undermine Iraq’s fragile democracy — which is, as far as neighboring governments are concerned (particularly those that begin with an “I” and end with an “n”), a profoundly subversive influence.

In a much, much less important case, the 2003 Ontario provincial elections mattered:

Because most of us thought that Ernie Eves was a douchebag, Ontarians can no longer eat medium or medium-well hamburgers in restaurants. (Which shocked my Indiana-born uncle, when he last visited.)

Elections matter. (I miss my medium-cooked cheeseburgers…)

7:22 PM: Apparently West Virginians like Bill Clinton. (Well, he took the state twice. But then, Dukakis won it, too…)

7:30 PM: Clinton projected as winner.

Interesting snippet from the drunkblog:

The last Democrat to win the White House without winning West Virginia was Woodrow Wilson back in 1916. The time before that, was James Buchanan in 1856, and back then we had just the One Big Virginia in the antebellum South. The last Democrat to win without Kentucky was John Kennedy in 1960. I don’t know JFK, and JFK was no friend of mine, but I’m pretty sure Barack Obama is no JFK.

H’m.

7:32 PM: Clinton by a margin of 2 to 1 in exit polls, MSNBC says.

I say it means nothing unless she breaks 70%.

7:38 PM: The line from the Clinton camp seems to be “never say die!”

8:00 PM: Well, we’re not hearing very much.

Olbermann says, Clinton needs 91% of the remaining delegates up for grabs, so even with a 2-1 victory she falls further behind.

8:10 PM: White vote analysis over at TalkLeft.

Well, I imagine that McCain is going to set up camp on the Ohio/Pennsylvania border this fall…

8:28 PM: H’m.

8:53 PM: They hate him, they really hate him!

How do we phrase it — this way or this way? (Or this way?)

8:59 PM: “The Al Sharpton of white people“?

Ouch.

9:02 PM: What this primary season has reminded us of is that the Democratic Party is more than its stereotype. Chait mentions it at some point in this diavlog. (I’m too lazy to find it and make a dingalink right now.) The Dems aren’t just the latte set with minority legions — they still have a large FDR Democrat/unionized white worker contingent.

9:11 PM: Okay, she’s in for a while. Distinct and pointed appeals about Florida and Michigan. A straight-up justification of her run.

9:15 PM: She’s giving a good speech, yet again. Unlike in New Hampshire, she actually has found her voice.

But it’s too late. (At least, as a Republican, I’m hoping it’s too late…)

9:19 PM: Interesting to see how she’s taken certain Obama memes and incorporated them as her own. (Bush did that with McCain in 2000.)

9:22 PM: Reason’s blog has an interesting post about tonight.

9:27 PM: Wow, that’s a lot of confetti.

And here’s the music playing now:

Tough lady.

9:30 PM: She won’t back down.

9:37 PM: How badly will the congressional Republicans get raped and pillaged this fall? (And yes, they do deserve it.) Watch the results of the special election in a 60-40 Republican district in Mississippi here.

(Right now, the GOP guy, Davis, is down by 500 votes with just over a third of the precincts reporting.)

9:41 PM: Huh. Hillary’s rally is using Bush’s 2004 anthem, too. (”Only in America”)

9:52 PM: HRC pledged delegate jumps to Obama.

The plot thickens.

10:06 PM: Has the ceasefire been broken?

10:11 PM: NBC has called MS-01 for Childers.

Yeah, this one’s going to hurt this fall…

10:20 PM: Yeah.

10:35 PM:  Diehards.